Fresh Transparency Concerns Rock NUPRC as Stakeholders Demand Forensic Audit of 2025 Oil Licensing Round

Secrets Reporters

Fresh concerns have emerged over the integrity of Nigeria’s 2025 oil and gas licensing exercise, with industry stakeholders demanding a comprehensive forensic audit of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) amid allegations that aspects of the qualification process may have been manipulated to favour selected companies.

The calls, which have been corroborated by multiple industry sources familiar with the licensing exercise, come as the technical bid evaluation phase of the highly anticipated licensing round continues under the supervision of the NUPRC, led by its Commission Chief Executive, Engr. Gbenga Komolafe.

Sources who spoke to SecretsReporters on condition of anonymity alleged that several participants in the exercise have raised concerns over what they described as inconsistencies in the application of qualification requirements, particularly regarding mandatory technical and data acquisition obligations contained in the published bid guidelines.

According to the sources, there are growing questions over whether certain bidders were granted procedural waivers or exemptions not made available to other participants.

The allegations have triggered increasing calls from petroleum consultants, investors, civil society organisations and industry observers for an independent forensic audit capable of reviewing every stage of the licensing exercise, from prequalification to technical evaluation and eventual award recommendations.

At the centre of the controversy are questions surrounding transparency in the implementation of the Commission’s own published guidelines.

The NUPRC had repeatedly assured both local and international investors that the 2025 Licensing Round would be transparent, competitive and fully compliant with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), promising a digital and rules-based process designed to attract billions of dollars in fresh investment into Nigeria’s upstream petroleum sector.

Official documents published by the Commission show that the licensing round follows a two-stage process comprising qualification and commercial bidding before ministerial approval and contract execution. The process officially commenced in November 2025 and is expected to conclude after the commercial bid conference.

The exercise is strategically important to Nigeria’s economy.

The Federal Government expects the licensing round to attract approximately $10 billion in investment, unlock an estimated two billion barrels of additional oil reserves over the next decade and eventually contribute about 400,000 barrels of daily production once successful licensees begin development activities. Fifty oil and gas assets comprising onshore, shallow water, frontier and deepwater blocks were offered to investors under the programme.

Industry analysts warn that those ambitious projections could be undermined if confidence in the licensing process weakens.

Several stakeholders insist that the Commission should publicly disclose whether any exemptions were granted regarding mandatory data purchase requirements, technical qualification thresholds or other eligibility conditions.

Others are demanding publication of evaluation methodologies and the criteria used to assess bidders, arguing that transparency is essential to maintaining investor confidence in Nigeria’s upstream petroleum sector.

“There should be no ambiguity in an exercise of this magnitude,” another source said. “If waivers were granted, the Commission should explain the legal basis. If no waivers were granted, then that should equally be made clear. Silence only fuels speculation.”

The Petroleum Industry Act places significant emphasis on transparency, competition and accountability in the administration of petroleum resources, principles that government officials have consistently highlighted as central to ongoing reforms aimed at restoring investor confidence after years of declining upstream investment.

The latest controversy comes as Nigeria continues efforts to reverse years of declining crude oil production caused by underinvestment, insecurity, ageing infrastructure and capital flight to competing African petroleum jurisdictions. International oil companies have repeatedly cited regulatory certainty and transparent licensing processes as key considerations in investment decisions.

Market observers say the credibility of the 2025 Licensing Round may ultimately depend on how swiftly the NUPRC responds to the growing concerns and whether it is willing to subject the entire exercise to independent scrutiny.

At the time of filing this report, the NUPRC had not issued any public response specifically addressing the allegations of manipulated qualification processes or claims that procedural requirements were selectively applied.