‎President Tinubu, NSCDC and VIPs: The Unintended Consequences of a Noble Intent

On November 23rd, 2025, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu made a bold move by ordering the nationwide withdrawal of police personnel attached to VIPs. The directive, aimed at refocusing the police on their core duties of protecting lives, properties, and maintaining law and order, was met with a mix of praise and concern. While the intention behind the move is laudable and long overdue, it raises questions about the potential unintended consequences of such a policy.

‎The directive to VIPs to source security protection from the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), has resulted in a surge in demand for NSCDC personnel and feedback shows that many of the state commands have been stretched thin within just one week of the presidential fiat. While the NSCDC has shown grit and competence in its core mandates of protecting critical infrastructure, and combating illegal mining, it’s ability to take on the task of VIP protection has been a subject of intense debate among security experts, VIPs and the general public. When you glance through the achievements of ACC Onoja led Mining Marshall in the mining sector; taking the fight doggedly to the doorsteps of illegal miners and the exploits of CC Apollos Dandaura’s led CG SIS (Commandant General Special Intelligence Squad) whose vicious clamp down on illegal bunkering activities in the Niger-delta led to the dismantling of scores of illegal refining sites in Niger-delta creeks, one cannot question the competence of NSCDC to assemble men to handle this new task.

‎

‎However, it is a fact that an ill-equipped, ill-motivated and inadequate workforce is bound to fail in its assignments. And I see NSCDC currently enmeshed in this cycle. Does NSCDC has the numerical strength to service VIPs in all 36 states of the federation and the FCT as well as arms and ammunition for the number of deployed personnel? Your guess is as good as mine.

‎

‎Nigeria seem to have a problem with strategic planning and execution. January 1st, 2012, former President Goodluck Jonathan removed subsidy without thinking through the policy, the timing and its potential effect. In the same vein, President Bola Tinubu declared the famous ‘subsidy is gone’ in his first hour in office on the 29th of May, 2023. These declarations, just like the order for the withdrawal of policemen from VIPs to concentrate on police core mandates were made out of noble intentions, but brought painful consequences. The unintended consequences of this order could expose VIPs who Civil Defence cannot cater for to risks of kidnapping, robbery, and attacks.

‎

‎The Cobra Effect, a phenomenon where a well-intentioned solution exacerbates the problem, comes to mind. Will the withdrawal of police personnel from VIP duties lead to an increase in security breaches, and ultimately, undermine the very fabric of the nation’s security architecture?

‎

‎The answer lies in careful planning and analysis. Laudable programs like this should be subjected to a thorough SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) to mitigate potential risks and ensure a smooth transition. The NSCDC, in particular, needs to be equipped with the necessary resources to effectively take on this new responsibility.

‎

‎In the meantime, the President may wish to reconsider ordering the police to offer protection to all elected office holders: both executive and legislature as well as judges, who are exposed to great danger by the exigency of their offices. The diplomatic corps and secretaries of government can also be accommodated, while NSCDC handles the rest. This is necessary because any attack on this group will present very bad optics and reality, as much much as it will on other component members of the society.

‎

‎As the government moves forward, it is crucial to strike a balance between refocusing the police on core duties and ensuring the safety of VIPs. A more nuanced approach, taking into account potential unintended consequences, would be a more effective way to achieve the desired outcome.

‎

‎The approval for the recruitment of more personnel into the armed forces, police and NSCDC as well as the approved multi-billion Naira upgrade of training facilities of security agencies is a welcome development. The NSCDC should be further supported with necessary work tool to enable it deliver on its new assignment; as their failure will not augur for you and I.

‎

‎The government should be commended for taking bold steps, but it is equally important to acknowledge the complexities involved and address them proactively. By doing so, Nigeria can move closer to achieving a more secure and stable future for all its citizens.

‎

‎

‎Lambert Udomfoniso